The 'AI replaces junior engineers' argument ignores basic economics. Junior employees aren't just cheap labor. They're salary insurance, pipeline protection, and the only hedge companies have against a senior workforce that increasingly doesn't need the job.
If you hire a software engineer and they apply their software engineering practices, they should be able to do a pretty damn good job. I remember when I started 18 years ago. I was able to achieve the impossible just by applying best practices and planning before even writing one line of code. Basically doing the “engineering” part. In parallel I’d study the language, do some POCs and I was still able to deliver on time.
But, it all depends on who you end up hiring. Not everyone is as diligent.
Where I have failed is when managers expect miracles to be delivered within impossible timelines. At first you trust their judgment thinking that they know how much time something takes to make, but they make bullshit estimates to look good and then blame you when it’s not delivered on time.
The only thing senior engineers have is a bullshit detector and the ability to say no because they actually know from experience how long it takes to do something. It’s not necessarily about their ability to do it, it’s their ability to argue back.
Software engineering back then sounds like academia