“As an economist, I understand productivity; people lose jobs when technology changes. But the valuations of these AI companies are literally based on the assumption that hundreds of millions of people will lose their jobs and employers will buy AI services instead of labour services.”
Dr Denniss said that while much of the attention was focused on the technology itself, he was more concerned about the broader economic consequences.
“What is the ATO’s plan? What are the state government plans?” he asked the committee.
“Again, all that money that Anthropic is betting on is coming from somewhere, and that’s going to have very real consequences for individuals, for communities, for the economy, for the way Commonwealth budgets are drawn up.”
Dr Denniss also challenged the argument that Australia risked being left behind unless it rapidly embraced AI, warning that national security concerns should not be used to justify an unrestricted rollout.
Mass unemployment is the AI business model
Sure was, such a shame regurgitating the internet doesn’t get you to self improving AI. LLMs are pretty much tapped out in advancement (logarithmic wall). Turns out to be reasonably useful for things where you can quickly test if the answer is correct and not one of the ‘hallucinations’, like mathematics and programming.
Newsflash, 95+% of jobs are not quickly testable for correctness and require judgement, not guessing the next word. Some bullshit paperwork jobs may go, but we can count ourselves lucky these evil pricks didn’t get there, this time. The societal destruction would be immense. Heed the warning.
Now it’s a circular money Ponzi scheme where seven companies see theoretical productivity gains and the rest of the US economy is much the same as it was.
Australia following the US economy down the incoming crash from this scam is something where we need to minimize the harm, not jump in.
I think the unfortunate reality is a lot of office jobs are repetition and busywork. anywhere that has extensive SOP’s are a target for reduced work due to automation. Even front line jobs like managing a restaurant have good whack of paperwork/administration that could be done by a program, next minute 10 restaurants are covered by 1 manager and each has a lower paid ‘team leader’ handing spot fires and discipline.
AI wont do everything but if the costs can be kept under control, or used for one time expenditure to write programs to automate tasks then it will cause permanent layoffs, (not the kneejerk layoffs driven by AGI promises).
This is arguably worse as if everyone got laid off then there would automatically be a cultural reaction and real change would have to be made. If there remains some ‘good’ jobs then we are right back where we are now, defining someone’s worth by how much they earn and looking down on those who don’t.
You’re not wrong, it’s a crying shame that increased productivity decoupled from the worker’s income. Now it goes straight into the 1%'s pocket. Even worse that the dream of an ever lower hours working week with automation got squashed. Shit, it’s gone into reverse, for no other reason than to make a number in an account go up. Those BS jobs should go, but they’re so linked to survival that it will do massive damage to society, not least by making people ever more desperate for the crumbs of jobs remaining.
defining someone’s worth by how much they earn and looking down on those who don’t.
Yup, although it’s more by how much wealth they have IMO, which is worse, especially when morality gets tied in.
This is arguably worse as if everyone got laid off then there would automatically be a cultural reaction and real change would have to be made.
Agreed, but they will inevitably circle around to trying again (and again if necessary) given the chance, hence ‘Heed the warning’. It’s (perhaps) just one significant advance in AI theory away. It would behoove us to lay the groundwork, build the community, and do the thinking so that when the real change has a chance it’s not a kneejerk away from the current hellscape, but a deliberate change toward a coherent positive. We’ve had our neoliberal two steps back, time for three steps forward.
It’s not just the AI business model. It’s the capitalist business model. More workers = more competition for jobs and wages are lower. Fewer workers = higher wages.
What’s funny is that a hundred years ago arch-capitalist Henry Ford knew that the workforce needed to be paid a decent wage, otherwise there would be no market for his products. Nowadays every company seems to assume underpaying and downsizing their workforce will have no repercussions, because surely there are enough people employed by all the other companies to form a customer base, right? Never mind that they’re all doing the exact same thing.
It’s some real tragedy of the commons shit, but the only ones in a position to do anything about it are taught that greed is good and that the line must always go up at any cost. Someday that debt will come due, but they know it probably won’t be them who has to pay it.
And you know when it DOES come due, whoever is there will cry that it wasn’t them and they just “inherited” it from their predecessor.
Why can’t we call it mass leisure and just forget this idea that everyone needs to be “productive” or employed to live?
This would be fabulous if people had some sort of income to fund their living costs. In the past the Universal Basic Income has been touted. If there were a UBI it would have to be above the poverty line. Right now JobSeeker payments are well below the poverty line. Would any of our govts provide a decent UBI? I’m doubtful.
Even people with jobs are struggling for all the reasons we know. So, what makes you think that if there were a lot more unemployed people they could manage to live a life of leisure in the likely situation that they would not have the income to get out of poverty?
I agree that you don’t have to be productive (in the industrial sense) to lead a satisfying life. You do need to have in place a system that looks after the basic needs of all people, otherwise you would create an even more unequal society and a lot more suffering and social unrest.
I know what does income even mean in our world of (still, for now) abundant resources and energy?
Because the people that own everything aren’t going to give us anything for free.
There is a difference between having time to sit under the bridge on your moldy mattress hugging your emaciated children and contemplating where you can steal their next meal and chilling in your air conditioned home, playing nintendo and eating pizza. The billionaires do not want to pay taxes. They do not want to employ you. They wont be happy until you pay for water and air. That is obviously not sustainable but they are insane at this point.
A balance between work and play is a rational bargain for the majority who didn’t get a bootstrap from inherited wealth and can’t live on investment income. With productivity improvements we should reduce the 40 hr week for sure and mandate longer paid holidays. Mass unemployment is not leisure unless you have some financial security. Admittedly living to work and being on call 24x7 or having to work two jobs to survive is wrong as well.
I would presume this would eventually be the final byproduct, assuming we don’t extinct the human species.
But think about the profits!
Because that sucks? Infinite leisure sounds like a nightmare.
Good for you. Why should that get in the way of my leisure?
Maybe seek therapy? Sounds like you want endless busybody tasks to feel “fulfilled”?
This is a very libertarian take; “you do you and I do me”. I am of the mind that infinite leisure will lead to our extinction. So you asking “why should that get in the way of my leisure” is bit like asking me why my desire to not die of smallpox should get in the way of you creating weaponized smallpox.
Yes, if given the opportunity I would infringe on others freedoms if it meant ensuring the survival of my species.
Not at all, I am describing the bonanza of energy and resources accessible to all of humanity.
Why should we still labor under the world-view of hand-to-mouth Bronze Age pastoralists?
Yeah, that.
That’s going to kill us all. I take it you aren’t retired? Speek to retirees about how they feel; and they still live in a world where at least some of what they do is novel.
Are you telling me that you wouldn’t want to give your time to any of a thousand causes if you could afford it? I used to DJ for the children’s hospital internal radio station, it was awesome fun, the whole job was cheering up sick kids in hospital (and their families). Even now, I can’t think of anything in my whole life that was more rewarding.
But it paid $0.
Imagine not needing to worry about money so you could do this full-time? It would be so marvellous!
Volunteering is great as long as you have reasonable living conditions. If you are poor and can’t afford transport, rent and other necessities it’s difficult to sustain volunteering work.
I was pitched unlimited free time, not poverty.
One of these sounds great to me. I’ve had the other in the past, too - do not recommend.
I get that. It’s just that the way our society runs if you don’t have a reasonably-paying job or some sort of back up, it’s pretty hard to be a gentleman or lady of leisure.
I really like my retirement. I’ve chosen to carry out a project at my place which I couldn’t have done before either when I was working or when I was poor, so I love this free time. I do recommend.
Having a pretty clear idea what you’d do with your time helps.
In a world where paid work is not necessary, why would unpaid work exist?
Well I suspect there will still be sick and injured kids who need cheering up, no matter what else is going on. Even the starship Enterprise had a sick bay.
I mean, sure? But you can’t build a society off of soup kitchens.
We’re talking about, literally, tens of millions or even more that are permanently unemployable. Similar situations have happened historically; they normally don’t end well.
What?!
That sounds like heaven.
Ironically this is why the judeo-christian concept of heaven never appealed to me, even as a kid.
Who would want to to live in a world where they could have anything they wanted? Unfortunately this isn’t something you can just avoid. I can’t really retreat into the woods because the tech is out there. No going back.
Who would want to to live in a world where they could have anything they wanted?
That’s not how Christian heaven works. Christian heaven is way more lame than that.
Not paying people living wage or benefits it the AI business model.
Global Revolution will be the consequence
Butlerian Jihad.
Someone who wants a government based on logic instead of corporate corruption and collusion? Tell him he’s dreaming…
Then we should all have the same dream and work towards making it a physical reality.
Look Dad, someone’s selling a government
I’m so sorry. Every now and again i forget to include the link. Thank you for doing so.
The trouble is that, currently, the main link of this post (“URL”) is not to the article, but to the graphic image.
(The image for the post should be entered at the “Thumbnail URL”; or you can leave that blank and Lemmy will fetch the image served from the article).
What’s important is to put the URL that you want us to visit in the “URL” field of your post. Could you edit now to do that?
i did do that with the URL but some articles are not picked up by this system. That’s why I put the link in the text box, but sometimes after haing mucked around with print screening the photo etc, I forget.
The fucking Labor Party man
This is all happening under their watch, and they’re cutting important services to give this horrible country and its tech bros billions of our dollars.
Meanwhile, they’re using the current discontent to promote their algorhythm bill, which doesn’t fucking need selling.
Fuck the Labor Party. Traitors they are
