Model training is not capex, it’s an operational cost
The “datacenter investment” is pure smoke and mirrors.
there is no demand for the insane amount of projected compute they’re building aside from anthropic and OAI
datacenter buildouts are effectively stalled, and this is being ignored by investors
The market for chatbot services is effectively saturated. All reported gains come from one of the big 2 cutting token costs to cannibalize the other one
It’s normal and right to have a healthy loathing of Elon. He does have the annoying habit of making good business bets though.
Model training is an investment with its own opex. The rest is accounting.
I think overall demand is growing … whether it will grow as fast as they hope/want, is a big Q. I think the average person/employee will only need a limited amount, and the demand will grow elsewhere. The world isn’t static, and your average household income is already peanuts compared to the capital sloshing about. I don’t like it, but I don’t see why the trend will stop. Hopefully there will be some serious societal change along the way, but I wouldn’t count on it. If there’s means to fuck over someone else to marginally improve one’s own position, there’s someone ready and waiting to do it. Invest in pitchforks, I say.
DC growth will continue worldwide (and eventually beyond) … but they are also getting increasingly efficient, along with the algorithms. We may reach an equilibrium of sorts for a while.
Chatbots are cheap… tokens burn with agents. If you have a problem that can be drastically sped up with agents, it is perhaps stupid to rely on lots of humans and time (from a business perspective). There will be a lot of fuckups along the way, which will be both amusing and sad. A few individuals and organizations will both nail it and be able to capitalize on it.
Elon is a reliable, shameless liar
Model training is not capex, it’s an operational cost
The “datacenter investment” is pure smoke and mirrors.
there is no demand for the insane amount of projected compute they’re building aside from anthropic and OAI
datacenter buildouts are effectively stalled, and this is being ignored by investors
The market for chatbot services is effectively saturated. All reported gains come from one of the big 2 cutting token costs to cannibalize the other one
It’s normal and right to have a healthy loathing of Elon. He does have the annoying habit of making good business bets though.
Model training is an investment with its own opex. The rest is accounting.
I think overall demand is growing … whether it will grow as fast as they hope/want, is a big Q. I think the average person/employee will only need a limited amount, and the demand will grow elsewhere. The world isn’t static, and your average household income is already peanuts compared to the capital sloshing about. I don’t like it, but I don’t see why the trend will stop. Hopefully there will be some serious societal change along the way, but I wouldn’t count on it. If there’s means to fuck over someone else to marginally improve one’s own position, there’s someone ready and waiting to do it. Invest in pitchforks, I say.
DC growth will continue worldwide (and eventually beyond) … but they are also getting increasingly efficient, along with the algorithms. We may reach an equilibrium of sorts for a while.
Chatbots are cheap… tokens burn with agents. If you have a problem that can be drastically sped up with agents, it is perhaps stupid to rely on lots of humans and time (from a business perspective). There will be a lot of fuckups along the way, which will be both amusing and sad. A few individuals and organizations will both nail it and be able to capitalize on it.