fts9

Yeah, I agree that there’s definitely more research to be done and I didn’t mean to contradict what the linked research suggests - a collapse of AMOC would result in catastrophic climate change for NW Europe.

All I meant to point out is that inferred AMOC data only stretches back around 45 years, with direct measurements of AMOC only going back around 35 years. Compared to meteorological records which, in some cases, stretch all the way back to the 1850s, around 40 years of data on such a specific phenomenon is not much to make hard conclusions from.

While on the one hand it makes the situation even more dangerous, as we’re essentially flying blind, on the other it also means we only have a relatively small dataset on what constitutes “normal” AMOC variations.

It’s also difficult to say what is or isn’t normal for AMOC as there’s limited and patchy information on how exactly it behaves