Summary: a satellite photo of Fordo available to Jerusalem Post shows two bomb entry points at the top of the ridge. Road tunnel entry points have been buried by Iran, and not bombed. Support building is standing.
I watched a compelling argument from an MIT prof the other day saying that our bunker busters are ineffective.
Gonna wait for some more confirmation until I believe it’s destroyed
It would depend on the rock type, but I have the same opinion basically (I’m not a geologist or explosives expert, of course) - there is not enough data to claim destruction.
Places about 100 m deep (e.g. metro station Arsenalnaya in Kyiv) have been so far considered totally secure from conventional weapons. Of course, MOP is a big special purpose weapon, so the old truth might no longer apply… but I’m not convinced that Fordo is ruined.
Opinion:
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Iranian air defense continues to be a joke, they knew it was coming, but accomplished nothing
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seems like a poor bombing job from the USAF, unless they knew exactly where to hit and didn’t care about destroying the whole structure
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seems like Iran had over 24 hours of advance warning and buried the road entry points (typically such a move would also speak in favour of evacuating all people and valuables)
Since they buried the entry ways, there’s good reason to think they didn’t leave any transportable (metallic) uranium there. It’s probably in 30 different basements and the owners think it’s a load of potatoes.
Political implications: oil price is going up, naval action in the strait of Hormuz is likely. :( Putin will be able to replenish his cash reserves. :(
Side note: in the recent days, Iran has acquired pretty good GPS jamming. Someone’s webshop will have a review soon: “4/5 quick delivery, easy to set up, good coverage, sadly doesn’t stop all bombs”.
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