It would depend on the rock type, but I have the same opinion basically (I’m not a geologist or explosives expert, of course) - there is not enough data to claim destruction.
Places about 100 m deep (e.g. metro station Arsenalnaya in Kyiv) have been so far considered totally secure from conventional weapons. Of course, MOP is a big special purpose weapon, so the old truth might no longer apply… but I’m not convinced that Fordo is ruined.
After existing since 1979, Iran’s government is pretty far from “revolutionary”. In fact, looking at their domestic policy, I’ll call them reactionary without a second thought.
Their most “revolutionary” thought probably was: “let’s export our theocracy to other lands”.
They are a symptom however. The shah was so unpopular (read: repressive) that islamists were able to take over. The shah was propped up by the UK and US in the 1950-ties, in a coup, because Iran nationalized oil industries.
Not sure about “obliterated”. There’s two bomb entry points at the top of the ridge. Road entry points haven’t been bombed. Support building is standing.
Iran had warning, since they managed to bury the road access points. I would not be surprised if they evacuated all people and valuable stuff from the site.
Opinion:
Iranian air defense continues to be a joke, they knew it was coming, but accomplished nothing
seems like a poor bombing job from the USAF, unless they knew exactly where to hit and didn’t care about destroying the whole structure
seems like Iran had over 24 hours of advance warning and buried the road entry points (typically such a move would also speak in favour of evacuating all people and valuables)
Since they buried the entry ways, there’s good reason to think they didn’t leave any transportable (metallic) uranium there. It’s probably in 30 different basements and the owners think it’s a load of potatoes.
Political implications: oil price is going up, naval action in the strait of Hormuz is likely. :( Putin will be able to replenish his cash reserves. :(
Side note: in the recent days, Iran has acquired pretty good GPS jamming. Someone’s webshop will have a review soon: “4/5 quick delivery, easy to set up, good coverage, sadly doesn’t stop all bombs”.
It’s not politically and psychologiclaly realistic for Iran to return to negotiations.
At this time, they perceive themselves to have been attacked without provocation - basically because Netanyahu needed a small victorious war - and resistance is not something one negotiates about.
Also, the ayatollah is an authoritarian ruler. Negotiation would be perceived as a sign of weakness by the opposition and population - and he might be ousted. He knows this, so he will continue the war.